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Week of September 17, 2002 |
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MANDALAY BAY
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LAS VEGAS, Nev.-- Last Saturday's thrilling
fight between Oscar De La Hoya and Fernando Vargas was another
bonanza for the Las Vegas sports books, even though--as usual--
quite a few big bettors overloaded the action a couple of hours
before the match.
The nervous bookies had a late surge of action on Vargas,
but most of them chose not to change the line, which was around 5
to 2 in favor of De La Hoya. As it turned out, De La Hoya's 11th-
round knockout ended up meaning even more money for the casinos.
It was kind of a replay of the Tyson-Lewis fight in June, when a
surge of Tyson money came in right before the opening bell.
At any rate, it makes me wonder what gamblers are thinking
when they load up on the underdog right before a highly
publicized fight. Partly, I think, they're affected by
television. HBO and Showtime will always do whatever they can to
make the fighters seem dead-even in ability. George Foreman and
Bob Costas, the pay-per-view commentators, were openly scoffing
at the poll of boxing writers that had appeared in the Las Vegas
Review-Journal that morning; 20 of 21 writers had picked De La
Hoya, and they thought the match was closer than that.
It WAS closer than that, but all 20 of them could have
picked it close. A poll doesn't really mean anything. But the
other factor in the late surge of Vargas money, I think, was
based on the kind of reverse psychology that gamblers use to trip
themselves up.
Namely, they were thinking:
1. Oscar De La Hoya is such a popular guy that the odds on
the fight (5 to 2 De La Hoya) were probably skewed by at least a
point by sucker money.
2. HBO kept running that videotape from the January press
conference in which Vargas got in De La Hoya's face and shoved
him without provocation. That causes another half point in I-
hate-Vargas money to bet against.
3. De La Hoya is soft. He's a multi-millionaire with a
singing career who wears designer clothes and takes his bride--
Puerto Rican pop singer Millie Corretjer--to training camp with
him. Vargas, who does nothing but train, gets another quarter
point.
4. Vargas really does hate De La Hoya. Years of watching
Mike Tyson have taught gamblers that the guy with the chip on his
shoulder is usually the more dangerous fighter. Quarter point for
Vargas.
5. Vargas is a natural 154-pounder, but De La Hoya started
his career at 130 and has moved up four weight classes. He's a
skinny small-boned guy in there against a Mexican Schwarzenegger.
Edge to Vargas.
I could go on and on, but this was one of those strange
fights where all kinds of voodoo advice seemed to be falling out
of the sky. Even without Don King involved, the hype was amazing.
The Mandalay Bay Casino, which has established itself lately as
the major fight venue in the world, billed the match as "Bad
Blood" and sold "Bad Blood" T-shirts and souvenirs in the lobby.
Nobody doubted that the bad blood existed, but what was
strange is that no one could quite identify the real reasons that
Vargas hates De La Hoya so much. Among the various theories:
1. When Vargas was a young unknown fighter, De La Hoya
snubbed his request for an autograph.
2. They once dated the same woman.
3. When they were both training at Big Bear Lake in
California, Vargas fell into a snowbank one day, and when De La
Hoya jogged by, he laughed at him. (I'm not making these up.)
4. Vargas thinks De La Hoya is not a "real Mexican" because
De La Hoya plays golf. (Ever heard of Lee Trevino?)
5. Vargas thinks De La Hoya turned his back on the people of
Mexico (even though both guys are American citizens) by living a
Hollywood lifestyle and pandering to the media. Vargas likes to
portray himself as an authentic "street guy," which he is.
6. This is my favorite one, though. Vargas accused De La
Hoya of being a bad father. But listen to the logic:
Both fighters got married recently, and both fighters have
two children out of wedlock. But Vargas got married to the woman
who fathered his two children. The playboy De La Hoya got married
to a woman who was not the mother of his children. Therefore,
he's a putz.
At any rate, the fight gave us a chance to look at the role
of real emotion in sports. George Foreman used the old bromide,
"Whoever wants it more will win this fight." If this were true,
featherweights could beat heavyweights. This is so obviously not
true that it makes you wonder how he won his championship belt.
But you hear this all the time in sportscasting. This team
is playing with emotion. That team is motivated. This guy got
dissed, so he'll have extra incentive to win. It's almost like
some kind of weird religious cult that has repeated the mantra so
many times it's impossible not to believe in it.
And yet, in any sport that requires hand-eye coordination--
boxing being the ultimate in that respect--extra adrenaline
doesn't really help, and could actually harm, a performance. Even
for less specialized sportsmen--like, say, an offensive lineman--
adrenaline might help for ONE play, but it's also likely to sap
your energy. The guy who's the most wound up is likely to be the
same guy who fails to make the tiny adjustments and subtle
changes to his body that make the difference between winning and
losing.
In the case of De La Hoya-Vargas, wasn't this the old story
of the younger guy who desperately wants the approval of the
older guy, but when he doesn't get it, he turns into Kathy Bates
in "Misery"? De La Hoya is more handsome, has more money, is
beloved by the crowds, and boxing doesn't even seem to be that
hard for him. Vargas has to scrap for everything, and basically
had to beg De La Hoya to grant him the fight in the first place.
Old-fashioned jealous rage is good for committing murder during a
domestic dispute, but it doesn't have much value in the ring.
There was a telling exchange last week when Vargas said "I
would rather die than lose to De La Hoya."
Asked to respond, De La Hoya could have made some Mike Tyson
comment, like, "I'll be happy to help him die." But he's too
smart for that. He said, "That's silly. Nobody wants to die in
the ring."
How are you gonna beat that guy? Vargas was a goner before
he ever showed up at Mandalay Bay. If I were De La Hoya, I
wouldn't grant him a rematch. Too much emotion. Who needs it?
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© Copyright 2002 United Press International and Joe Bob Briggs
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