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Here's how I know that opinion polls are always wrong.

Think about what happens when you go to a restaurant. First you get the menus, right? You have all these choices. Then everybody at the table DISCUSSES what they're gonna order. I don't why people do this. They could just read the menu and order, right? But they feel the need to DISCUSS what they're gonna order.

And while they're discussing what they're gonna order, they TELL YOU what they're gonna order. But first they tell you what they MIGHT order. "The pork chops sound good. I bet you they make a great hamburger here, though. Oh, I have hamburger all the time. I shouldn't get that here. What are you having?"

So now the person has suggested two things he MIGHT order, and asked for a THIRD suggestion from another person.

So the next person says, "Well, I thought I would order the flaming teriyaki pepper steak."

And the original guy goes, "Ooooooooo! Flaming teriyaki pepper steak. Yes! That sounds GREAT!"

And then they talk about it some more, and they discuss it some more, and they go into stuff about their diet. "I've probably had enough red meat for today. I should look at the salads."

And then they discuss nine kinds of salads they could possibly have.

And then they MAKE A DECISION. "You know what? I'm gonna try this crabcake dish with the red sauce."

End of story, right? They fold the menu. They have a cocktail. They wait around until the waiter gets there. The waiter looks at em, and they say, "I'll have the pork chops."

In other words, they NEVER order what they JUST SAID THEY WERE GOING TO ORDER. Half the time, they don't even order anything they've DISCUSSED ordering.

But they're not LYING about. Two seconds before the waiter asked em the question, they were CERTAIN, in their heart of hearts, that they were indeed ordering the crabcake dish with the red sauce. But at the MOMENT OF TRUTH, the stomach sends a message to the brain, and they blurt out "Pork chops."

Do you see what I'm saying here?

There are three kinds of opinion polls:

Polls that you take at the stage when the menus are passed out and you're looking over the choices.

Polls that you take at the stage when you ask other people for their suggestions.

And polls that you take at the moment when you make your final decision and announce it.

The only time you can't take an opinion poll is at the moment when you order. By then it's too late.

In other words, opinion polls assume that the person answering the pollster's question KNOWS WHAT HE WANTS.

Which, of course, he never does.

He wants the pork chops.

He just hasn't figured it out yet.